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BREAKING EARNINGS ALERT - MAY 28, 2025

Nvidia Beats Earnings But China Export Ban Just Cost the Company $8 Billion

Nvidia Earnings Analysis

Stock Jumps 6% Despite Guidance Miss as Jensen Huang Calls China's $50B AI Market "Effectively Closed to U.S."

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Editor's Note: Nvidia's Q1 results reveal both the incredible strength of AI demand and the devastating impact of geopolitical restrictions. While the company beat revenue and earnings expectations, export controls just eliminated what could have been $8 billion in additional guidance—and the implications for AI investors may be far more significant than the market realizes.

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Nvidia reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings Wednesday evening, with revenue of $44.06 billion beating analyst estimates of $43.31 billion, but the AI chipmaker's stock jumped 6% in after-hours trading despite mixed guidance that revealed the massive financial impact of recent U.S. export restrictions on China.

Strong Earnings Beat Powered by Data Center Boom

Nvidia delivered earnings per share of 96 cents, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of 93 cents, driven primarily by its data center business which generated $39.1 billion in revenue—a staggering 73% increase year-over-year. The data center segment now accounts for 88% of Nvidia's total revenue, underlining the company's dominance in AI infrastructure.

Key Metric: Gaming revenue also showed strength at $3.8 billion, up 42% from the same period last year, while the company's automotive and robotics division grew 72% to $567 million.

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China Export Restrictions Deliver $8 Billion Blow to Guidance

The company's second-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $45 billion fell short of analyst expectations of $45.9 billion, but CEO Jensen Huang revealed the guidance would have been about $8 billion higher without recent export restrictions on China-bound H20 chips.

Nvidia incurred a $4.5 billion charge related to excess H20 inventory and lost an additional $2.5 billion in first-quarter sales when the U.S. government informed the company that its previously-approved H20 processor would require an export license. Huang stated that China's $50 billion AI chip market is now "effectively closed to U.S." companies, representing a massive lost opportunity for future growth.

Blackwell Production Hits Record Pace Despite Headwinds

Despite the China setbacks, Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chip architecture continues to see unprecedented demand, with management calling it "the fastest product ramp in Nvidia's history." Microsoft has already deployed tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs and is expected to scale to hundreds of thousands of units, largely due to its partnership with OpenAI.

Profitability Impact: The company's gross margin of 61% would have reached 71.3% without the China-related charges, indicating strong underlying profitability in the core business.

Market Reaction Focuses on AI Demand Over Geopolitical Risks

Nvidia shares rose to $142.81 during the earnings call, bringing the stock within 5% of its January record high and marking its highest level in four months. The positive reaction suggests investors are looking past the China-related headwinds to focus on the company's dominant position in the global AI infrastructure buildout.

The company also returned $14.1 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks during the quarter, while net income increased 26% to $18.8 billion, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities despite the regulatory challenges.

What This Could Mean for Your Portfolio

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Bottom Line for Investors

Tonight's results demonstrate both the tremendous opportunity and the significant risks facing AI investors in the current geopolitical environment. While Nvidia's core business shows remarkable strength with 73% data center growth and record-breaking product ramp speeds, the $8 billion impact from China restrictions shows how quickly regulatory changes can affect even the most dominant technology companies.

For investors seeking to navigate these volatile conditions, understanding which companies have the best positioning to weather geopolitical storms while capturing AI growth could be the difference between significant gains and devastating losses in the months ahead.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions and carefully consider your risk tolerance.

Article Sources

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  • CNBC - Nvidia Earnings Report
  • Reuters - AI Chip Export Restrictions
  • Kiplinger - Technology Sector Analysis
  • Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Data
  • TipRanks - Investment Research
  • Nvidia Corporation - Official Earnings Call Transcript
  • Wall Street Journal - Geopolitical Trade Analysis
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